Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.019519 0.022131 0.024969 0.028282 0.032044 0.036187 0.041096
2025-06-01 0.015465 0.019067 0.023322 0.028724 0.035410 0.043425 0.053781
2025-06-08 0.012970 0.016923 0.021868 0.028515 0.037238 0.048321 0.063518
2025-06-15 0.011612 0.015874 0.021458 0.029328 0.040165 0.054614 0.075425
2025-06-22 0.009966 0.014176 0.019919 0.028346 0.040443 0.057254 0.082516
2025-06-29 0.008841 0.013032 0.018956 0.027971 0.041402 0.060775 0.091023
2025-07-06 0.007752 0.011802 0.017714 0.027010 0.041340 0.062718 0.097282
2025-07-13 0.007332 0.011506 0.017789 0.027979 0.044196 0.069179 0.110926
2025-07-20 0.006901 0.011140 0.017704 0.028665 0.046637 0.075166 0.124336
2025-07-27 0.006563 0.010880 0.017748 0.029534 0.049415 0.081883 0.139510
2025-08-03 0.006049 0.010281 0.017184 0.029339 0.050393 0.085703 0.150129
2025-08-10 0.005631 0.009800 0.016767 0.029338 0.051670 0.090093 0.162076
2025-08-17 0.005163 0.009201 0.016112 0.028889 0.052170 0.093258 0.172298
2025-08-24 0.004883 0.008909 0.015962 0.029321 0.054281 0.099457 0.188672
2025-08-31 0.004534 0.008457 0.015486 0.029108 0.055173 0.103495 0.201338
2025-09-07 0.004367 0.008324 0.015572 0.029938 0.058080 0.111501 0.222372
2025-09-14 0.003970 0.007723 0.014737 0.028936 0.057361 0.112522 0.229665
2025-09-21 0.003691 0.007322 0.014246 0.028552 0.057811 0.115827 0.241843
2025-09-28 0.003367 0.006806 0.013489 0.027572 0.056965 0.116461 0.248507
2025-10-05 0.003291 0.006781 0.013696 0.028561 0.060243 0.125742 0.274362
2025-10-12 0.003187 0.006690 0.013762 0.029261 0.062970 0.134097 0.298989
2025-10-19 0.003107 0.006642 0.013911 0.030149 0.066169 0.143715 0.327322
2025-10-26 0.002930 0.006372 0.013573 0.029950 0.066968 0.148196 0.344407